Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds

Inicio: 2026-09-08 01:11 UTC

Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 6–3 Cincinnati Reds

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Local)

Predicción 61.57%1.62momio equitativo
EV -0.875%
Ventaja -0.544%
Kelly -1.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.82%61.40%61.58%63.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.541.541.6168.97%65.00%64.94%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 38.43%2.60momio equitativo
EV +2.61%
Ventaja +0.979%
Kelly +1.56%
Crecimiento +0.041%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.58%38.60%38.42%41.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.492.502.6745.45%40.14%40.00%37.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Los Angeles Dodgers (Local): 61.57%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 38.43%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.60. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.67, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.61%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV +2.61%E +0.979%K +1.56%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-08 01:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV +2.61%E +0.979%K +1.56%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-08 01:05
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV +1.84%E +0.696%K +1.12%G +0.021%2.7%2026-09-08 01:05
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35%EV -3.34%E -2.13%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-08 01:10
BetAnything🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-08 01:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-08 01:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 01:05
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 01:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 01:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 01:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.077%E -0.030%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 01:05
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.95%E -2.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -1.23%E -0.479%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-08 01:09
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.95%E -2.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-08 01:09
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 01:10
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 00:59
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 01:04
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 01:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.65%E -5.10%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 00:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.65%E -5.10%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.26%E -5.55%K -16.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -2.00%E -0.784%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 01:05
Caesars🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 61.20%EV -0.875%E -0.544%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80%EV -2.38%E -0.938%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-08 00:14
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.92%EV -0.875%E -0.544%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.08%EV -3.54%E -1.41%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-07 17:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.67%EV -3.95%E -2.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.33%EV -3.54%E -1.41%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 01:05
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.95%E -2.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 01:10
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-08 01:04
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 01:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 01:09
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 01:05
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 01:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 01:09
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 22:49
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 01:10
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 01:10
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -10.73%E -7.40%K -23.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -3.92%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 01:05
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.11%E -1.32%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-07 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 01:10
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 01:04
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 01:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -7.65%E -5.10%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -4.69%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 01:10
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -6.42%E -4.22%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.19%EV -5.46%E -2.22%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 01:10
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.95%E -2.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-07 16:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 16:35
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 01:05
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 01:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 01:10
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 16:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 01:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 01:10
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -8.26%E -5.55%K -16.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -5.84%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 01:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.95%E -2.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.61%E -2.72%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.49%E -0.932%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 01:10
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 01:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -7.03%E -4.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 01:08
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.80%E -3.79%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.53%E -3.59%K -6.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 01:00
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.875%E -0.544%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-08 00:45
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.49%E -0.932%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 01:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -2.72%E -1.72%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 01:10
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.34%E -2.13%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 01:10
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 01:00
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.57%E -2.95%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -5.18%E -3.37%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -15.45%E -7.02%K -12.88%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 01:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%0.3%2026-09-08 01:10
ProphetX◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%0.8%2026-09-08 01:05
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-09-07 22:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.2%2026-09-08 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.2%2026-09-08 01:05
Polymarket◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-09-08 01:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%1.5%2026-09-08 01:10
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%1.5%2026-09-08 01:10
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%2.3%2026-09-08 01:05
BetOpenly◎1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%3.3%2026-09-08 01:05