Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers

Inicio: 2026-08-09 00:11 UTC

Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 1–2 Los Angeles Dodgers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Predicción 36.08%2.77momio equitativo
EV +2.09%
Ventaja +0.740%
Kelly +1.14%
Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.49%36.11%36.20%37.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.652.652.8340.00%37.75%37.74%35.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante)

Predicción 63.92%1.56momio equitativo
EV +0.362%
Ventaja +0.231%
Kelly +0.635%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.44%63.89%63.80%65.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.501.501.5769.93%66.85%66.67%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 36.08%; Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante): 63.92%. Para Arizona Diamondbacks (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.77. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.83, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.09%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV +2.09%E +0.740%K +1.14%G +0.024%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -4.75%E -3.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-08 23:44
DraftKings🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%EV +0.289%E +0.104%K +0.162%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%EV -2.83%E -1.86%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-08 22:19
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.51%EV -0.432%E -0.157%K -0.246%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.49%EV -2.83%E -1.86%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-09 00:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.90%EV -0.793%E -0.288%K -0.453%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.10%EV -1.56%E -1.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.3%2026-08-08 22:35
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.793%E -0.288%K -0.453%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-09 00:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.793%E -0.288%K -0.453%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.39%E -3.64%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 23:49
Fliff🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.793%E -0.288%K -0.453%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.31%E -5.04%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 00:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.68%EV -1.15%E -0.421%K -0.663%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.32%EV -2.83%E -1.86%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.68%EV -1.15%E -0.421%K -0.663%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.32%EV -2.83%E -1.86%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 00:10
BetUS🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.15%E -0.421%K -0.663%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 23:45
GTbets🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.76%EV -1.51%E -0.555%K -0.876%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.24%EV -2.83%E -1.86%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-09 00:09
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%EV -1.56%E -1.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-08 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.47%E -2.30%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-08 21:50
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.47%E -2.30%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-08 21:50
ReBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-09 00:04
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.39%E -3.64%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-09 00:00
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.39%E -3.64%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 23:20
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.39%E -3.64%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 23:17
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.39%E -3.64%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 23:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.60%E -0.962%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.31%E -5.04%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 00:09
MyBookie.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -3.32%E -1.24%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 00:05
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.47%E -2.30%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 21:14
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-09 00:10
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 22:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:50
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:49
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:49
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:50
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 21:49
888sport🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.03%E -4.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 22:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.03%E -4.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 22:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.03%E -4.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 22:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.40%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.67%E -4.57%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 21:05
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.12%E -1.95%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.75%E -3.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.25%EV -5.48%E -2.09%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.75%EV -4.75%E -3.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 23:55
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.48%E -2.09%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.95%E -5.52%K -18.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 22:35
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV +0.362%E +0.231%K +0.635%G +0.002%2.0%2026-08-08 16:09
SportsBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 22:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -1.56%E -1.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-09 00:10
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.83%E -1.86%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 00:00
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 21:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 23:15
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 23:15
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 16:24
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 16:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.39%E -3.64%K -11.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.03%E -4.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.20%E -2.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.03%E -4.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 21:50
Betsson🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -7.29%E -2.84%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.47%E -2.30%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 23:59
NordicBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -7.29%E -2.84%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.47%E -2.30%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.01%E -3.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 00:09
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.01%E -3.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 00:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.01%E -3.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.59%EV -6.67%E -4.57%K -14.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -8.01%E -3.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -8.59%E -6.01%K -19.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 21:50
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.81%E -3.92%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 23:58
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.81%E -3.92%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 00:09
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.81%E -3.92%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.11%E -2.74%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 00:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-08-09 00:10
Novig◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%0.8%2026-08-09 00:10
Matchbook◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%0.8%2026-08-09 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%0.8%2026-08-09 00:05
Polymarket◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-08-08 16:15
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-08-08 16:29
ProphetX◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%1.1%2026-08-09 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%1.1%2026-08-09 00:10
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.51%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.49%2.0%2026-08-09 00:10
BetOpenly◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%3.5%2026-08-09 00:05