Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks v Incarnate Word Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 22:01 UTC

Final: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 28–26 Incarnate Word Cardinals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

87%

13%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Local)

Prediction 86.97%1.15fair odd

EV -3.47%

Edge -3.12%

Kelly -31.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.42%87.08%86.85%88.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.061.091.101.1194.34%91.46%90.91%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 13.03%7.67fair odd

EV +4.27%

Edge +0.534%

Kelly +0.610%

Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.89%12.92%13.15%13.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.007.247.008.0014.29%13.81%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Local): 86.97%; Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit): 13.03%. For Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.08%E -5.63%K -75.95%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +4.27%E +0.534%K +0.610%G +0.026%	5.1%	2026-10-03 19:01
BetMGM🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.57%EV -4.34%E -3.94%K -43.37%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.43%EV +1.01%E +0.130%K +0.150%G +0.002%	3.8%	2026-10-03 19:11
Fliff🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -5.21%E -4.78%K -57.85%G +0.000%	7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -4.85%E -0.665%K -0.771%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-03 21:40
FanDuel🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.48%EV -3.47%E -3.12%K -31.52%G +0.000%	7.10I 14.08%NM 13.52%EV -7.46%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-03 19:10
betPARX🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.34%E -3.94%K -43.37%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.76%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 18:15
BetRivers🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.34%E -3.94%K -43.37%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.76%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 18:15
Bally Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.34%E -3.94%K -43.37%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.76%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 18:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.34%E -3.94%K -43.37%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.76%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 18:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -7.82%E -7.37%K -130.26%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.76%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-03 15:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.