Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Texas A&M Lions v Northwestern State Demons

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 23:01 UTC

Final: East Texas A&M Lions 38–14 Northwestern State Demons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

89%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

East Texas A&M Lions (Local)

Prediction 89.16%1.12fair odd

EV -3.70%

Edge -3.43%

Kelly -46.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.24%89.10%89.01%89.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.071.071.0895.24%93.46%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northwestern State Demons (Visit)

Prediction 10.84%9.23fair odd

EV +2.94%

Edge +0.309%

Kelly +0.346%

Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.21%10.90%10.99%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.108.738.509.5012.35%11.46%11.76%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: East Texas A&M Lions (Local): 89.16%; Northwestern State Demons (Visit): 10.84%. For Northwestern State Demons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.79%EV -3.70%E -3.43%K -46.28%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.21%EV +2.94%E +0.309%K +0.346%G +0.010%	3.1%	2026-09-12 22:45
FanDuel🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.67%EV -5.49%E -5.18%K -91.43%G +0.000%	9.20I 10.87%NM 10.33%EV -0.312%E -0.034%K -0.038%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-12 21:59
Fliff🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.16%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.63%G +0.000%	8.80I 11.36%NM 10.84%EV -4.65%E -0.528%K -0.596%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-12 22:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.70%E -3.43%K -46.28%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.90%E -0.929%K -1.05%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-12 14:20
Caesars🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.63%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -7.90%E -0.929%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-12 14:20
theScore Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.38%E -6.07%K -127.55%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -7.90%E -0.929%K -1.05%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -3.70%E -3.43%K -46.28%G +0.000%	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV -12.23%E -1.51%K -1.72%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-12 20:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.